The madness of March has been felt coast to coast and by the end of the weekend there will only be eight teams left standing from the field of 68. With my bracket in complete disarray and a handful of future tickets laying at the bottom of a trash can, a B1G trash can, I’m investing in more player props for this weekend’s Sweet 16. One thing I look for when it comes to player props (March Madness specifically) is a team’s “second best” player. During the tournament, there’s always such a clear focus of stopping an opposing team’s number one that it opens up opportunities elsewhere. From there, I look into various data sets to determine whether or not I believe there to be value in the prop number set by the sportsbook. Here are the three props I’m invested in for this weekend.
Marcus Sasser O11.5 points (1U, -112) .vs. Syracuse
Marcus averages 13.3 points per game this season and is averaging the 2nd most minutes on the Cougars behind Quentin Grimes. Marcus is willing to attack the rim or let it fly from deep, which both will be crucial to defeating the Orangemen’s 2-3 zone. Over the past month, Marcus has been averaging double digit field goal attempts and five attempts from beyond the arc per game. I think this Syracuse team and defense is slightly overrated at this juncture and believe Grimes & Sasser will be quite the handful for the Syracuse Defense.
Kevin Obanor O1.5 threes made (2U, -148) .vs. Arkansas
Have you ever drank a full carton of orange juice after brushing your teeth? I imagine it’s awful. Has to be similar to the feeling I had paying the juice here on this Kevin Obanor prop, but I honestly think it should be worse. Only on two occasions since February 1st has Kevin gone under 1.5 made threes. With Max Abmas commanding so much attention and the way ORU likes to play the two man game in space with Max and Kevin, there will be plenty of opportunities for Obanor to go over this number. In the month of March, Obanor is averaging 5.6 3pt attempts per game, and is shooting 50% from beyond the arc.
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Jeremiah Robinson-Earl O2.5 assist (1U, -118) .vs. Baylor
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is the key piece that makes the Villanova Wildcats as dangerous as they are. With star guard Collin Gillespie getting hurt at the beginning of March, Jeremiah has had to shoulder much more of the scoring and administrative duties. In the previous two tournament games, Jeremiah had six assists in each and had been averaging 2.2 assists per game on the season. Baylor is going to want to get the ball out of Robinson-Earl’s hands now more than ever with Gillespie out, which should provide opportunities for Villanova teammates to knockdown shots.
A fun tournament team indeed. Keep on dancing Oral Roberts!